Notes from meeting with Warren Buffett

一个朋友刚刚发给我的，大家共享。这个没有中文，不好意思。

翻译件

默认分类 2010-04-13 13:50:07 阅读430 评论16 字号：大中小

上周五，斯坦福大学的MBA们前往奥马哈，与巴菲特欢聚一堂。以下是他们的谈话纪要，希望您喜欢：

 

关于控制情绪

- 如果能控制好你的情绪，你的投资表现会好3成。

- 住在奥马哈有一个好处，就是可以远离华尔街的喧嚣，保持一个平稳的心态。

- 投资中最重要的本事就是：每天你走进办公室的时候，用一颗平常心来看待数字和图表。

- 需要做决策的时候就照照镜子问问自己，别让别人帮你确认决策是否正确。

 

关于价值投资

- 价值投资的原则从未改变。

- BRK公司的秘籍仍然是《聪明的投资者》中关于关于安全边际和投资态度的第8、20两章。

- 做好在缺粮少弹的时候生存下来的准备。

- 巴菲特从来不想让自己处在第二天早上要打一大笔钱的位置上 [是指margin补保证金吗？]。

- 看完《聪明的投资者》以后我就再也没有投过要冒风险的资了。

- 在给公司估值的时候别看现在的市价。

- 杠杆不是好东西。就算你99%的时候都赚钱了，一到那个1%，你就破产了。

 

关于选择公司

- 一个公司如果能进到你的心里，那它在市场上也会有一席之地。

- 去寻找那些重要品牌和人们的内心所产生的关联效应。“可口可乐”就等于快乐，所以它们都在你觉得高兴、激动的地方做广告，比如奥运会。人均消费的可口可乐罐数每年都在增加，除了巴菲特买进的那年是例外。“吉列”就等于男人味儿。纽约洋基和波士顿红袜比赛的地方他们就会做广告，所以年轻人看到以后想着长大了咱也要用吉列。

- 你瞅瞅口香糖。高科技会改变人们嚼口香糖的方式和偏好吗？比尔盖茨也承认不会。

- 你很少看到没牌子的啤酒和剃须刀。这很神奇。最好找这样一个公司，这个公司所在的领域山寨贴牌厂商压根儿就进不来。

- 找一个公司，你给它40亿，它能跟没事儿似的继续之前的生意。（比如Iscar，著名刀具供应商）

- 我把公司分三类：好的、坏的、太难懂的。上千个公司，你得重点看那些你看得懂的好公司。

- 我有8层漏斗。有些公司第一个也过不了，有些几小时之内就全通过了。

- 得知道行业区别。不同行业的重要指标是不一样的。

- 重点问题： 你能算出一个公司值多少钱吗？ 例子：巴菲特分析认为中石油值1000亿，但是市值只有350亿，所以他就在中国政府的允许范围内，能买多少买多少。

 

关于能力范围和议价能力

- 我对具体业务完全不懂。 在工厂车间里我找个男厕都费劲。我只要知道两样：在竞争中的护城河有多宽？还能涨价吗？

- 我在很多方面都比鲍比费舍尔（Bobby Fisher, 国际象棋大师，在南斯拉夫比赛后遭美国通缉）都强，但下棋肯定不行。你得找你有优势的游戏跟别人玩儿。

- 我不是天才，我只在一些小地方聪明。但我一直都呆在我聪明的那些小地方。

- 魔镜魔镜告诉我，今年秋天我该给See’s Candy涨多少价啊？

关于政治和慈善

- 民主并不能妥善解决长期问题。不幸的是政策周期往往比竞选周期长。

- 我们没办法抛弃那些巨型大企业（Too big to fail，类似于国内的央企）。

- 贸易不平衡终将导致严重的政治压力和政治问题。

- BRK公司对股东的慈善行为不干涉。

- 我们普通人现在活得比洛克菲勒当年活得还好。经济增长为所有人都带来好处。没什么理由能让你不去做你喜欢做的事情。别做那些你觉得别人认为你该做的事情。做你喜爱的事情。有钱没钱真不差什么，咱们的生活都差不多，好吃好睡，爱去哪儿就飞哪儿。

- 我们希望中国繁荣昌盛。不公平会导致不满。未来的一年会有很多人抨击中国，因为政客们总需要替罪羊来吸引火力，但我希望你们可以有自己的观点和视角。抨击中国的人是白痴。你问问那些对中国愤怒的人，他们是不是宁愿这个拥有核武器的国家深陷于对美国富裕的嫉妒和对自己现状的不满之中呢？

- 我们面临的最大危险就是核战争和生化战争。1945年以前，如果你是一个疯子，你造成危害的能力还很小。现在不一样了，而疯子又随着人口增长而增多。

- 如果有可能的话，巴菲特会把他大部分的慈善事业致力于防止大规模杀伤武器的扩散上，但是他找不到一个有效的途径去把钱放到对此有用的地方。

 其他

- 在危机中，危害转移的现象很明显。举例来说，拍卖利率证券（ARS）的收益率有了神奇的变化。哈雷戴维森（Harley Davidson，著名摩托车厂商）的公司债券利息从15%降到了5%。

- 在危机中，你是否符合信用条例不重要，别人认为你是什么样的人那才是重要的。

- 如果由巴菲特来定的话，他会制定更加先进更加合理的税率政策。BRK内部的调研表明，巴菲特手下那些收入在6万到80万之间的雇员交的税是34%，而巴菲特自己只交16%，而且他还没做任何合法避税的措施。

- 我们都有可观的能力，问题在于如何利用。

- 提高你的口头和书面沟通的能力是最重要的。这会令你创造的价值提升一半。巴菲特在公司墙上挂着他在卡耐基公共演讲培训班的结业证，而不是内布拉斯卡大学的毕业文凭。如果没有这个结业证，他是不会有勇气向他太太求婚的。

- 事情总是向好的方向发展的。巴菲特被哈佛商学院拒掉以后才发现格雷厄姆和多德还在哥伦比亚大学教书。他给他们写了封信说原来以为他们死了，现在发现还活着，很想跟他们学习。要相信事情会向好方向发展。想想那些曾经把你拒掉的姑娘吧。我曾经和内布拉斯卡选美冠军约会。后来她离了三次婚，如果我当时娶了她，后果不堪设想，生活轨迹全乱。

- 别担心犯错误。你人生中最不想犯的错误就是挑错配偶。这个错误不但昂贵无比，而且还绝不局限于物质层面。

- 最好的投资银行家会从你的立场考虑问题。这就是Byron Trott为巴菲特服务时的特点以及他能为他操办5个大交易的原因。如果你能事情做得对巴菲特有好处，你这活儿就干的不错。

- 最好全资拥有一家公司，这样你就可以对着镜子说“你看，全体股东都对我很满意！”

- 总体来说，巴菲特是我见过最友好、热情、慷慨的人。他在Piccolo Pete’s饭馆请我们吃了很多好吃的，有茄汁鸡肉、西冷牛扒还有沙士汽水和甜点。饭后他还花了一个多小时和我们这些来自斯坦福、明尼苏达、印第安纳、艾莫里、证券女强人[真有这个学校吗？？!]、以及麻省理工的学生合影。

 

Last Friday, Stanford MBAs met with Warren Buffett in Omaha and below is the notes taken. Hope you will like it:

Emotional Discipline

· Keeping control of your emotions will allow you to do at least 30% better in investing

· Being in Omaha has its advantages in terms of keeping emotions under control; being removed from the crowd

· The most important skill in investing = keeping the same attitude (frame of mind) towards numbers and figures everyday you come to the office

· Look in the mirror to make decisions. You shouldn’t need to be reassured by others

Value Investing

· Value principles have not changed

· The two vital writings for Berkshire Hathaway continue to be the chapters on Margin of Safety and Attitude in Benjamin Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor” (Chapters 8 & 20)

· Be prepared to survive when the oxygen gets cut off from everyone else

· W.E.B. never wants to be in the position where he might have to post a lot of money tomorrow morning

· I never did anything risky in investing after I read “The Intelligent Investor”

· Value a company independently of any knowledge of current market pricing

· The only way to go wrong is leverage. 99% of the time you get richer and its great, 1% of the time you go broke

Picking Companies

· If a company can get share of mind, it will get share of market

· Search for vital brand associations. Coca Cola = happiness. Hence Coke advertises at places that make you happy like the Olympics. Per capita Coke drinkers have increased every year except one that Buffett has owned Coke. Gillette = transition to manhood. They advertised during the World Series b/w Yankees and Reds and caught young men early so that when they became men they wanted to use Gillette products.

· Look at chewing gum. Will technology change the way people chew gum or their preferences for chewing gum? Bill Gates agrees that it will not

· You don’t see generics in beer and razor blades. It is fascinating. Find a company where generics are not able to build a niche

· Find a company that after you give them a $4 billion check (e.g., Iscar), they will continue to operate the business as if nothing has changed

· I keep three files: good, bad and too hard. There are thousands of companies out there. Focus on the good ones that aren’t too hard for you to get your arms around

· I have eight filters. Some companies bump up against the first one, others make it through all eight in a matter of hours

· Know sectors. Important figures and relative figures change by industry

· Key question: Can you figure out how much a company is worth? Example: His own analysis came up with a conservative $100 billion valuation for PetroChina but the market was valuing it at $35 billion. Thus, he bought as much as the Chinese govt would allow.

Circle of Competence and Pricing Power

· I do not know anything about operations. I get lost in factories and couldn’t even find the men’s room. Only two things that I need to know: How big is the moat? Is there untapped pricing power?

· I can beat Bobby Fisher in a lot of things, but chess is not one of them. You need to pick a game where you have an edge.

· I’m not a genius, but I’m smart in spots. Stay around those spots.

· Mirror mirror on the wall, how much should I raise the price of See’s candy this Fall?

Politics and Philanthropy

· Democracy does not solve long-term problems well. Unfortunately the policy cycle is longer than the election cycle

· We will not be able to get rid of too big to fail

· Imbalances in trade eventually create serious political tensions and problems

· Berkshire Hathaway is not responsible for determining the philanthropic goals of its shareholders

· We all live better today than Rockefeller did in his time. Economic growth brings prosperity for all. There is no reason not to pursue what you love to do. Don’t do something because you think it is what you think others expect you to do. Do what you love. The difference between how the wealthiest live and the rest of us is not really the great. We all have enough food and sleep on comfortable mattress’ and can fly around to wherever we want to be.

· We want China to be prosperous. Inequality breeds discontent. There will be a fair amount of China bashing in the coming years as politicians need a scapegoat, but I encourage you to develop your own perspective. China bashers are nuts. Ask those who are angry with China if they would rather have a China with nuclear arms that resents America’s prosperity and is mired in discontent.

· Biggest risk that we all face is nuclear war and chemical warfare. Prior to 1945, if you were a nut, your ability to inflict harm was limited. Now this has changed. Nut cases are increasing as a proportion of the population.

· If he could do it effectively, it [the prevention of proliferation of WMD] is where he would focus all his philanthropic activity but he couldn’t find an effective way to give money to that cause

Other

· There were remarkable dislocations during the crisis. For example, auction rate securities with dramatically different yields. Harley-Davidson corporate bond yield going from 15% to ~5%

· In a crisis, it doesn’t matter how sound you are in terms of credit quality; it matters how sound people think you are

· If it were up to him, he would have a much more progressive tax rate in the U.S.; office survey showed that Buffett’s employees who made b/w $60K and $800K paid on average 34% in taxes while Buffett only paid a little over 16%, Buffett does no tax planning

· We all have the horsepower – it’s a matter of utilizing that horsepower

· Improving your skills in oral and written communication is the most important thing that you can do for yourself. It will increase the value you create by more than 50%. Buffett hangs his diploma from Carnegie public speaking course on his office wall but not his degree from Nebraska or Columbia. Without the public speaking degree he would not have had the courage to ask his wife to marry him.

· Things work out for the best. It wasn’t until Warren Buffett got rejected from HBS that he realized that Benjamin Graham and Dodd were still alive and teaching at Columbia. He wrote them a letter saying that he thought that they were dead but now that he knew they were alive he’d like to study under them. Have faith that things will work out. Think of the girls that turned you down – I once dated Miss Nebraska, who ended up going through three divorces and would have completely changed my life’s trajectory

· Don’t worry about mistakes. The one mistake that you never want to make is to pick the wrong spouse. It is expensive and not just materially so.

· The best investment bankers put themselves in your shoes. That is what Byron Trott did for Buffett and why he did about 5 deals with him. If you do things that are good for Warren, you’re going to do well.

· Own 100% of a company, so that when you look in the mirror, you can say, “My shareholders love me.”

· As a general observation, Warren Buffett was one of the nicest, warmest and most generous people that I have met. He treated all of us to Piccolo Pete’s for Chicken Parm and NY strip and Root Beer floats for desert. Afterwards he spent 1+ hours taking photos with students from Stanford, Minnesota, Indiana, Emory, Smart Women in Securities and MIT.